📈 Where did the tourists go?

Explore Wall Street's rising recession fears, Starbucks' earnings challenge, and the alarming drop in tourism numbers to the US.

Author

Journals GG
April 30, 2025

Good morning & Happy Wednesday!

Today, we’re breaking down Wall Street’s rising recession fears, a rough earnings brew for Starbucks, and the trillion-dollar race to reshape global payments.

Plus: Trump’s rocky first 100 days and why tourism numbers are crashing.

Grab your flat white and let’s break it down. ☕️

Markets

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⚖️ Is a recession coming or not?
Recession alarms are back on Wall Street’s radar, and they're getting louder. Thanks to President Trump’s escalating trade moves, big firms are now placing higher odds on a downturn by year’s end. But it sort of depends.

The job market, still holding up, is the key battleground. Yet cracks are forming: consumer confidence just fell for the fifth straight month, job openings hit a four-year low, and layoffs are quietly rising across major companies like UPS, Meta, and Chevron.

Economists are watching closely, because if sentiment slips, the dominoes could start falling fast.

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☕️ Starbucks Stock Slumps 7% After Serving Up a Lukewarm Earnings
Starbucks stock took a sharp 7% hit pre-market after a bitter earnings miss brewed disappointment. EPS landed at 41 cents, far below the 49-cent forecast, marking a 40% profit drop from last year. Same-store sales dipped 1% globally, and North American transactions fell 4%, showing that while new stores are opening, regular foot traffic is cooling.

💵 Trillion-dollar "Game of Thrones"
You might not notice it yet, but stablecoins are quietly reshaping global payments, and fast. With faster, cheaper, and 24/7 settlement, they're putting real pressure on centuries-old systems like SWIFT. Big names like Circle, PayPal, and Stripe are already staking their claims, while banks and lawmakers scramble to keep up. The trillion-dollar question now isn’t if stablecoins go mainstream, it’s who ends up owning the rails.

📉 Stocks Just Posted the Worst Start to a Presidential Administration Since the '70s
Trump just set a 50-year record, sadly not the good kind. The S&P 500 dropped over 7% in his first 100 days back in office, marking the worst performance since Gerald Ford took over post-Nixon in 1974. Wall Street’s once-high hopes have turned into whiplash. What began with soaring stock optimism quickly unraveled as tariffs, mixed messaging, and faltering consumer sentiment sparked sharp sell-offs. Even some of Trump’s biggest business backers are now openly frustrated, calling out the chaos they didn’t sign up for.

Quick News

Tourism

US Tourism is Suffering - Trump promises rebound

President Trump is standing firm on his economic approach, tariffs and all, even as tourism numbers tank. In an ABC News interview, Trump insisted “the country’s doing great,” despite mounting signs of international backlash, particularly from Canada.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the old U.S.-Canada economic partnership "over" after his re-election, and a "Boycott USA" trend has taken hold. Advance bookings for U.S.-bound flights from Canada plunged over 70% for April through September, while foot traffic from foreign travelers at the top 10 U.S. airports dropped more than 20%.

Trump dismissed the concerns, claiming tourism is “way up” and promising a turnaround in “six months.” But ABC’s Terry Moran wasn’t buying it.