📈 The Strange Substack Post That Spooked Nvidia Overnight

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Good Morning & Happy Wednesday.

Today’s rundown hits everything from crypto’s rebound to Nvidia’s latest dust-ups, AI shakeups, and even a wild new RAM shortage, plenty to catch up on before the holiday slowdown. With Thanksgiving tomorrow, here’s what you need to know heading into the break.

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Market News

📈 Futures edge up as Wall Street looks to keep rallying into Thanksgiving
US stock futures ticked higher Wednesday as Wall Street tries to stretch its winning streak into the holiday slowdown, with the Dow and S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq adding 0.3% after Tuesday’s 660-point Dow surge. Tech kept driving momentum, Alphabet hit record highs on reports Meta may use Google’s TPU chips, while Nvidia slid 2.5% on renewed competition worries. Investors are also eyeing the Fed, with markets pricing an 85% chance of a December rate cut, as Trump weighs five finalists to replace Jerome Powell.

😅 Nvidia's Business Is Booming. Its Stock Is Falling. What Gives?
Nvidia’s stock has slid more than 8% since its blowout earnings, with investors worrying that tech giants are overspending on AI infrastructure and that reports of Meta exploring Google’s custom chips could dent Nvidia’s dominance. The stock now sits about 17% below its October peak, as fears of an emerging AI bubble grow and concerns mount over hyperscalers potentially overbuilding data-center capacity. Adding fuel, Nvidia’s investments in customers like OpenAI and CoreWeave have drawn comparisons to late-’90s vendor financing, even as analysts warn that custom chips could make up 45% of AI accelerators by 2028.

💪 What's Healthy About a 'Healthy Correction' in Stocks?
Wall Street pros are suddenly cheering for a downturn, calling recent volatility “healthy” and even an “opportunity” as valuations for giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon look stretched. Some strategists say a 10–15% pullback, or even a 25% drop, would help wash out leverage, reset expectations, and cool off the bubble chatter that’s been building across stocks and crypto. After years of easy gains, experts warn investors have grown complacent, taking on more risk and chasing huge returns. Others argue a 50% rally from here would be far more dangerous than a correction, since valuations already sit well above long-term averages.

💹 Alphabet on pace to hit $4 trillion market value as AI gains momentum
Alphabet is set to smash the $4 trillion mark, with shares jumping 4.1% premarket as the company rides a year-long surge powered by its sharper push into AI tools, putting Google’s parent alongside the elite Big Tech players battling for AI dominance. Wall Street’s fascination with AI continues to drive the momentum.

⛏️ Bitcoin Gains 10% from Lows to Stabilize Near $88,000
Bitcoin snapped nearly 10% off its $82K lows, climbing back toward $90,000 in a sharp V-shaped rebound that’s breathing life into a bruised market. It’s still 31% below October’s $126K peak, but traders say a clean break above $90K could flip sentiment bullish again. Altcoins are joining the rally, with Ether, XRP, and Solana all pushing higher, hinting at broader risk appetite returning. Bears still warn a drop toward $60K is possible.

This week in Tech

🛍️ OpenAI and Perplexity are launching AI shopping assistants, but competing startups aren’t sweating it
OpenAI and Perplexity just rolled out new AI shopping tools, letting users hunt for deals, compare products, or even upload photos for cheaper alternatives as holiday spending ramps up. Both platforms work similarly, though Perplexity leans on memory to tailor picks by location or lifestyle. With Adobe forecasting a 520% surge in AI-assisted shopping, the space looks hot, but niche startups like Onton and Phia say specialized data still beats general chatbots.

🤔 Nvidia’s ‘I’m Not Enron’ memo has people asking a lot of questions already answered by that memo
A viral Substack post over the weekend falsely claimed Nvidia “may” be committing massive accounting fraud, spooking enough people that the company sent analysts a note saying, essentially, “we’re not Enron.” The allegations, including Michael Burry’s misread of stock-based comp, don’t hold up, but they reopened debate about Nvidia’s cozy ties to neocloud firms like CoreWeave, which rely on debt and conveniently boost Nvidia’s sales. Critics argue this setup inflates the AI boom without crossing into illegality, creating behavior that’s “not healthy” but very visible. If the AI bubble pops, Nvidia could face write-downs, collapsing partners, and a flood of cheap used chips, painful, obvious, but not fraud.

💵 RAM prices are so out of control
The RAM shortage has gotten so wild that stores are posting market-price signs, with shops like Central Computers and Micro Center telling customers to ask staff because prices now change daily. In just three months, some 32GB kits have tripled, jumping from ~$130 to $440, while 64GB DDR5 can hit $900. The spike threatens GPUs, consoles, and even the Steam Machine, as Nvidia and AMD reportedly prep price hikes. Industry voices warn AI demand is soaking up DRAM supply, prompting Epic’s Tim Sweeney to say high-end gaming could take years to recover.

🎼 Warner Music signs deal with AI music startup Suno
Warner Music Group has settled its copyright lawsuit with AI music startup Suno, striking a deal that WMG says will “open new frontiers” while still protecting artists. As part of the partnership, WMG also sold Songkick to Suno, which will keep the platform running for fans. Suno will roll out licensed, upgraded models next year, with downloads locked behind paid accounts and free users limited to playback and sharing. Crucially, WMG artists, from Lady Gaga to Coldplay, will have full control over how their names, voices, and likenesses are used in AI-generated music.

🇨🇳 How Alibaba overcame Beijing’s crackdown to become an AI giant
Alibaba has clawed its way back from Beijing’s crackdown, rebuilding itself into a serious AI powerhouse after losing more than $400 billion in value post–Ant Group’s failed IPO. Under new leadership, the company refocused on core e-commerce while quietly pouring resources into AI, launching open-weight models that have become developer favorites. CEO Eddie Wu’s “AI-driven” mandate has revitalized Alibaba’s cloud business and positioned it as one of China’s strongest contenders in the global AI race.

Invest & Strategies

🏘️ Some second-order effects of unaffordable housing
A new study finds the 1990s cohort is on track to retire with homeownership rates nearly 10 points lower than their parents, and the psychological fallout is massive. When people believe they’ll never own a home, they work less, spend more, and take bigger investment risks, widening wealth gaps over time. The paper shows renters with low wealth already display these patterns. A targeted subsidy lifting renters above the “giving-up threshold” delivers welfare gains 3.2x higher than universal transfers and sharply boosts ownership, effort, and stability.

🤔 The Role of Time Availability in Retail Trading Behavior
A new study using Swedish tax data finds retirees trade way more once they have extra time, boosting both trading frequency and the number of stocks they hold. But that freedom comes at a cost: their risk-adjusted returns actually fall, suggesting more time doesn’t equal better decisions. The authors argue that time constraints normally act as a guardrail, and once lifted, retail investors trade more actively but also less efficiently.

🫧 Bubbles are obvious in Hindsight
Market history shows how hard it is to spot a bubble in real time, even though in hindsight events like 2000 or 2008 look obvious. Today’s AI-driven surge could be 1996 optimism or 1999 euphoria, depending on who you ask. Valuations outside the Mag 7 remain elevated but not “bubble” territory, and giants like Nvidia are generating real revenue, not dot-com vapor. The real question: will AI deliver the $650B+ payoff believers expect, or are we drifting into classic overconfidence? Either way, anyone certain of the answer is probably taking too much risk.

🛤️ The Railway Bubble vs. the AI Bubble
Today’s AI boom echoes past manias, from the dot-com telecom buildout to the railway bubble of the 1800s, where innovation sparked euphoria, speculation, and eventual collapse, but also lasting progress. The George Hudson saga shows how hype, weak guardrails, and “new era” thinking can fuel pump-and-dump excess, even as real infrastructure quietly transforms society. The lesson: breakthroughs can change the world while still bankrupting the investors chasing them. Innovation survives; speculation rarely does.