📈 Tesla’s $200B Problem

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We’re kicking off November with a mix of AI-fueled rallies, earnings surprises, and big-picture investing ideas to keep you ahead of the curve. From Apple’s record quarter to Meta’s costly AI bets and BlackRock’s global equity outlook.

Grab you Flat White and let’s get into it! ☕️ 

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Market News

📈 Futures climb as November kicks off with earnings, AI, Fed in focus
US stock futures edged higher Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.4%, and Dow up 0.1%, as Wall Street aims to extend October’s rally. Big Tech and AI stocks continue to drive momentum amid easing US–China tensions. However, a government shutdown is delaying key data, and the Supreme Court is set to review Trump’s tariff policies. Earnings from Palantir, Super Micro, and AMD headline the week ahead.

🍎 Apple Stock Climbs to New Highs as CEO Calls for Best Holiday Season Ever
Apple crushed expectations in its fiscal Q4, posting earnings of $1.85 per share on $102.47 billion in revenue, up 8% year-over-year. Services hit a record $28.75 billion, while iPhone 17 sales jumped 6% to $49.03 billion, marking a September-quarter record. CEO Tim Cook expects the “best-ever” holiday season, with revenue growth projected between 10%–12%. Apple shares surged over 3% after hours, pushing its market value past $4 trillion, second only to Nvidia.

💰️ Musk's political foray cost Tesla huge sales
A new study from Yale University finds that Tesla likely lost between 1 million and 1.26 million vehicle sales in the U.S. from October 2022 to April 2025 due to the “polarizing and partisan” public actions of its CEO Elon Musk. The paper estimates that by Q1 2025 Tesla’s monthly U.S. sales could have been about 150 % higher absent that effect. Industry analysts remain skeptical of the magnitude of the impact.

🤖 AI-Led Investments Are Driving US Economic Growth
AI is powering the U.S. economy even as official data is delayed by the government shutdown. Economists estimate AI-related investment drove over half of America’s 1.6% growth in early 2025, fueled by massive spending on data centers, chips, and software. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta poured billions into infrastructure, boosting construction and business investment. The boom is lifting markets and consumer wealth, though experts warn power shortages and overinvestment could slow momentum ahead.

🌶️ The Chipotle indicator: Is the economy teetering on a recession
Chipotle’s latest earnings call just dropped an unexpected economic signal. CEO Scott Boatwright says weaker sales and a soft Q4 start point to financial strain among younger consumers, especially those aged 25–35. With AI disrupting entry-level jobs and student debt weighing heavy, lower- and middle-income diners, who make up about 40% of Chipotle’s sales, are eating out less. Some analysts say that trend hints the U.S. may already be in a mild recession.

This week in Tech

🤖 1X Now Taking Pre-Orders for NEO, a Humanoid Servant Robot
California’s 1X Technologies just opened orders for NEO, a 5’6” humanoid home robot that can do laundry, fetch groceries, water plants, and even chat like ChatGPT. It’s fully autonomous, but if it encounters a new task, a remote 1X operator can control it and “teach” the action, meaning a stranger could technically see inside your home. NEO can also recognize objects, translate languages, and stream its view to your phone, blurring the line between household helper and sci-fi horror plot.

📺️ Netflix Stock Is Set for a 10-for-1 Split. What You Need To Know
Netflix (NFLX) announced a 10-for-1 stock split, set to take effect after the closing bell on Nov. 14, with trading at the new price starting Nov. 17. The move will lower Netflix’s share price, currently around $1,120, by roughly 90%, making it more affordable for employees and retail investors. Each shareholder will receive nine additional shares per share owned, without changing their overall stake. Netflix stock is up 26% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500.

🥸 Meta has an AI product problem
Meta’s massive AI spending spree is rattling investors. The company’s operating costs jumped $7 billion and capital expenses soared nearly $20 billion last quarter as it poured money into AI infrastructure and talent. CEO Mark Zuckerberg defended the push, saying Meta needs to “accelerate” to stay ahead in AI research and frontier models.

🚀 Alphabet is increasingly launching “moonshot” projects as independent companies
Alphabet’s X lab is changing course, spinning off more of its moonshot projects into independent companies instead of keeping them under Alphabet’s umbrella. The shift is backed by Series X Capital, a $500 million fund led by former Facebook CFO Gideon Yu, with Alphabet as only a minority investor. X chief Astro Teller says the goal is to let promising projects “move faster” outside Alphabet’s structure, while still staying closely connected. The lab’s “kill-fast” culture remains central, only the wildest, most world-changing ideas survive.

Invest & Strategies

🫧 Trend Following in a Bubble
Momentum and stop-loss strategies can help investors ride the AI boom, without timing the top. Using a 10-month moving average, as outlined in Meb Faber’s tactical asset allocation model, investors stay in stocks when prices trend above that average and move to cash when they fall below. This trend-following approach reduces volatility and limits drawdowns, though it can create whipsaws in choppy markets. It’s best viewed as insurance, you give up some gains for protection during crashes, and it works especially well in tax-deferred accounts where frequent trades don’t trigger capital gains.

😅 The Price of Risk
Forensic accountant Anthony Scilipoti joins The Knowledge Project to unpack the AI bubble, risk, investing red flags, and the illusion of objectivity in financial statements. The conversation dives into why “price creates narrative” and how risk peaks when it feels safest. Listeners, from billion-dollar managers to casual investors, called it one of the show’s best episodes. Top takeaway: in markets and in life, positioning beats predicting.

👀 3 Market Predictions For November
Stocks kept climbing through October even as the government shutdown dragged into a fifth week and AI bubble warnings grew louder. With the Fed easing rates amid slowing job growth, investors are looking ahead to November with cautious optimism. Here are Seeking Alpha’s top three market predictions for the month ahead.

📆 BlackRock Equity Market Outlook Q4
As 2025 enters its final quarter, the equity outlook remains powered by AI. BlackRock’s alpha seekers see momentum evolving with the AI trade, while urging “rational exuberance” amid lofty U.S. valuations. Opportunities are broadening, from clean energy and Spain’s data-center boom to AI-driven growth across Asia. The message: AI’s influence is expanding globally, rewarding investors who stay selective and adaptive.