📈 Should we worry about a recession?

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Good Morning & Happy Monday!

Markets are sliding again as Wall Street braces for the Fed's big decision, while recession fears refuse to fade. Trump is set to talk to Putin about ending the Ukraine war, and tariffs loom large over economic forecasts. Plus, AI may still be king, but quantum computing is also drawing attention, should investors take notice?

Grab your Iced latte and let's get into it! ☕️👇️

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Markets

📉 Stock futures slide AGAIN after another week of sharp losses
US stock futures slid on Monday, extending March’s market slump ahead of a key Federal Reserve policy meeting. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Dow futures dropped 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.7%.

Last week, the S&P 500 entered correction territory, while the Dow logged its worst week since March 2023. Investors remain jittery over economic uncertainty and Trump's tariff policies. All eyes are now on the Fed, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, making Powell’s guidance and the latest dot plot crucial for market direction.

🤔 How Worried Should You Actually Be About a Recession?
This week's market slump has reignited recession fears, but experts say a full-blown downturn isn’t inevitable. Instead, slower growth seems more likely, with cautious consumer spending and weaker hiring dampening momentum. Still, early 2025 data suggests the economy has lost steam, with tariff uncertainty and federal job cuts adding pressure. What should investors brace for?

🪖 Trump will Speak with Putin This Week about ending the war
President Donald Trump announced he’ll speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, following promising U.S.-Russia talks in Moscow. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. The U.S. is pushing for a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine has already accepted. However, Russia continues heavy airstrikes and advances in Kursk, raising doubts about Putin’s willingness to pause the conflict.

😲 Tariffs loom over a still-cautious Fed
The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but investors are more interested in how Trump’s economic policies, especially tariffs, may shape future rate decisions. On Wednesday, the Fed will release its closely watched "dot plot," which maps officials' rate projections. In December, expectations dropped to two cuts in 2025 instead of four, partly due to Trump’s policies. Now, with those policies in motion, markets will be watching for any shift in the Fed’s outlook on growth and inflation.

💰️ Want to Invest in Quantum Computing?
AI is still the biggest narrative in 2025, but quantum computing is also becoming a big market mover. Stocks like IonQ (IONQ) have doubled in six months, while Rigetti Computing (RGTI) skyrocketed 1,093%. However, the real powerhouses in quantum aren’t niche players, it’s tech giants like Alphabet, Nvidia, and Microsoft driving the sector’s biggest moves. For investors looking to tap into quantum without the volatility, these companies may be the smarter, lower-risk bet.

Quick News

• Oil traded higher on Monday after the United States vowed to keep attacking Yemen's Houthis until the Iran-aligned group ends its assaults on shipping.

• China announced a “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” on Sunday in a bid to prop up domestic consumption.

• Musk’s never been more powerful so why are Tesla shares tanking?

• David Sacks and his VC firm sold $200 million in crypto assets.

• People are using Google’s new AI model to remove watermarks from images.

• Why Intel’s New CEO Has Wall Street Excited.

• Apple now faces a problem far bigger than tariffs or weak iPhone sales.

Trends

Is Alcohol on the Rocks?

Young adults in the U.S. are drinking less than previous generations, and that shift is forcing the alcohol industry to rethink its future. Health concerns, shifting social norms, and the rise of cannabis and sober curiosity are all playing a role in this cultural change.

Gallup data shows that only 62% of adults under 35 drink, down from 72% two decades ago, while alcohol consumption has actually increased among those 55 and older. Morgan Stanley analysts have even downgraded Jack Daniel’s parent company, citing Gen Z’s moderation habits and the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs like GLP-1s.

Meanwhile, movements like Dry January are becoming mainstream, with hundreds of thousands participating each year. Athletic Brewing CEO Bill Shufelt believes this trend is just beginning, calling it a “generational headwind” that the industry hasn’t fully grasped yet.

But while casual drinking is down, heavy drinking is still on the rise—6.3% of Americans were classified as “heavy drinkers” in 2022, up from 5.1% in 2018. As cannabis legalization expands and alcohol-free alternatives boom, the big question remains: Can the booze industry adapt, or is this a permanent shift?