📈 Nvidia Week Is Here, Buckle Up

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Good Morning & Happy Monday.

Big week ahead: markets gear up for Nvidia earnings, a pivotal jobs report, and fresh debate over Trump’s $2k “dividend” checks. In tech, Apple faces a $634M verdict while the U.S. pushes for AI security upgrades, and Europe rethinks its 2035 gas-car ban. Plus, we break down a lopsided market rally, a surprising drawdown strategy, and why the economy might be better than the headlines say.

Grab you Flat White and let’s get into it! ☕️

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Market News

📈 Futures rise as investors count down to Nvidia earnings, jobs report
Tech stocks tried to kick-start the stalled rally Monday, with Nasdaq 100 futures jumping 0.7% and the S&P 500 up 0.4%, while the Dow basically took a nap.
But after last week’s roller-coaster drop in megacap names like Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta, investors are now laser-focused on this week’s jobs report.
Even though the S&P 500 and Dow barely closed last week in the green, Thursday’s wipeout is still hanging over the market like a storm cloud.

📆 What to Expect in Markets This Week
Earnings week is about to punch the market awake, with Nvidia front and center as investors brace for more AI-driven volatility. Retail heavyweights Walmart, Target, and Home Depot are also dropping results. With economic reports creeping back online and housing data in limbo, this week could get choppy fast.

💵 Trump's $2k 'dividend' checks would need Congress vote
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Trump’s plan for $2,000 tariff-funded “dividend” checks needs Congress to sign off, so it’s far from a done deal. Trump insists the money would go to “everybody but the rich,” but watchdogs warn the plan could cost twice what tariffs bring in next year. Bessent, meanwhile, says Americans should feel relief soon as tax cuts kick in and inflation finally starts to cool.

👎️ Traders bet against December cut
With agencies finally rolling out shutdown-delayed economic data, Fed officials are still split, some pushing inflation worries, while the Fed’s most dovish voice hints another rate cut makes sense. Markets aren’t convinced: futures now show a 60% chance of no December cut, a sharp flip from just a day earlier. But with fresh data dropping next week and more Fed speeches coming, traders could turn on a dime all over again.

🚀 The Dow Is Close to 50,000. How the Heck Did We Get Here So Fast?
The Dow racing toward 50,000 is wild, not just because it’s a monster round number, but because the first 10,000 took more than a century of crises, crashes, and chaos to break through. Since then? Milestones like 20k, 30k, and 40k have flown by with barely a shrug. Now the index is surging on an AI-fueled boom that some call a revolution…and others call a bubble ready to pop.

This week in Tech

👀 Jury says Apple owes Masimo $634M for patent infringement
Apple just got hit with a $634 million verdict, after a federal jury ruled the Apple Watch infringed Masimo’s blood-oxygen tech patent. Masimo called it a major win for protecting medical innovation, while Apple blasted the verdict as “contrary to the facts” and vowed to appeal. This feud goes way back, Masimo says Apple poached key staff and stole its pulse-oximetry tech, and the ITC even banned Apple Watch blood-oxygen features last year.

🔐 How to protect American AI fro nation-state level threats
America’s racing toward Security Level 5, a full-blown push to shield critical AI systems from nation-state hackers, insider threats, and supply-chain tampering, as experts warn market incentives alone won’t cut it. The plan calls for a national AI security sprint, hardening software, securing hardware, tightening personnel vetting, and even building ultra-secure government-run data centers, all to keep frontier models from being stolen or sabotaged. With AI now powering defense, coding, and cybersecurity itself, the proposal argues the U.S. needs SL5-ready tools now, so it can quickly lock systems down the moment they become strategically essential.

🇪🇺 Europe banned new gas cars after 2035, now it’s reconsidering
Mercedes-Benz chief Ola Källenius says loosening Europe’s 2035 combustion-engine phaseout isn’t surrender, it’s “a smarter strategy” as weak EV demand, job cuts, and sluggish infrastructure make the old timeline unrealistic. He argues carmakers have already poured billions into green tech, but Europe now needs flexibility to stay competitive, protect workers, and still hit its 2050 carbon-neutral goal. Källenius insists the mission hasn’t changed, only the path to get there.

Invest & Strategies

☕️ Are U.S. Stocks Running Out of Steam?
Markets are looking top-heavy and pricey, with the CAPE near 40 and the top 10 stocks swallowing about 40% of the index, levels that almost always spell muted long-term returns. History shows that when valuations get this extreme, the next decade usually disappoints, even if the hype feels unstoppable in the moment. Still, instead of panic-selling, the smarter play is diversifying globally, leaning into value and small caps, and remembering that every market eventually shifts seasons, usually right when investors grow convinced it won’t.

🤔 Few Stocks at 52-Week Highs, Even as Market Hits Records
The market may look strong on the surface, but it’s a lopsided rally, with the US Large-Mid Index hitting records even as the median stock sits about 15% below its high. Nearly all the giants, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, are hovering near peaks, while most sectors lag, especially real estate. With just a handful of megacaps driving the gains, investors face a clear risk: if the leaders slip, the whole index goes with them.

🙋 What If Things Are Better Than They Seem?
A lot of people feel stuck in a K-shaped economy, where the rich ride high on soaring asset prices while everyone else battles crushing costs, but the picture isn’t as hopeless as the vibes suggest. Yes, life is expensive, yet stock ownership has quietly exploded: nearly two-thirds of households now own stocks, with the bottom 50% seeing holdings jump 350% since 2020. Young investors are piling in earlier than ever, incomes are higher than past generations, and homeownership, while slower, is still rising. Things are tough, no doubt, but the data shows the system’s upside is reaching more people than headlines let on.

🐿️ A Jane Street Alum Teaches Trading
Patrick McKenzie’s new podcast kicks off with a must-hear deep dive into how elite firms like Jane Street actually teach trading, featuring ex-JS trader Ricki Heicklen. Far from the usual “trader bootcamp” fluff, the episode digs into adverse selection, liquidity incentives, order-book info leaks, and the real mechanics behind market making. It’s packed with insights on model thinking, position sizing, and why trading is ultimately an information game, making it instant canon for anyone serious about markets.

👀 A Winning Investment Strategy Sitting Right Under Your Nose (If You Can Hold It)
A new study shows even superstar stocks endure brutal drawdowns, which inspired a test: what if you simply bought stocks after they crashed 50–90% and held on? Surprisingly, those “dumpster-diving” portfolios crushed the market long-term, thanks to a tiny handful of mega-winners like Nvidia and Apple delivering life-changing gains. The catch, of course, is insane volatility and tons of losers, making it a strategy fund managers will never touch, but one patient, contrarian investors could exploit if they’ve got the stomach for pain.