📈 Nvidia's new $1B bet

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Good Morning & Happy Wednesday!

From Wall Street’s rate-cut anticipation to OpenAI’s $500B leap and Nvidia’s billion-dollar bets, there’s plenty to unpack. Whether you’re tracking the Fed, the future of jobs, or the pullback on gold.

Grab you Flat White and let’s get into it! ☕️ 

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Market News

📈 S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Dow stalls with Fed decision
Wall Street kept its momentum rolling. U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.6%, while the Dow held steady. Investors are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed’s expected quarter-point rate cut, the first since September. Big Tech stayed in focus, as GOOGL jumped 4.98%, MSFT rose 1.98%, and Nvidia edged closer to a $5 trillion valuation

🌫️ Fed 'in a fog' as it heads toward another rate cut
The Fed’s gearing up for a rate cut. Policymakers are expected to trim rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark down to 3.75%-4.00%, even with limited economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown. With no September jobs report available, officials are flying partly blind, but a softening labor market and rising unemployment (now 4.3%) are keeping pressure on the Fed to act.

👇️ The Price of Gold Continues Sliding
Gold’s shine is dimming, at least for now. Prices slipped below $3,900/oz as traders took profits and optimism over U.S.-China trade talks reduced demand for safe havens. The metal’s down about 11% from last week’s record, though it’s still up 50% year-to-date. Technicals show weakening momentum, with analysts warning of a possible deeper pullback after months of massive gains.

🇨🇳 Trump Expects to Cut Fentanyl Tariff, Discuss Nvidia in Xi Talks
Trump’s signaling a trade shift. On his way to South Korea, he said he’s ready to cut tariffs on Chinese goods, possibly from 20% down to 10%, if Beijing helps curb the fentanyl crisis. He also plans to discuss Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell AI chips with Xi Jinping, hinting he might allow China limited access as part of a broader deal. The Trump-Xi meeting is set for Thursday morning, with both sides aiming to ease rising tensions.

👀 Tesla Eyes Internal CEO Candidates If Musk Leaves
Tesla’s got a backup plan. If shareholders shoot down Elon Musk’s massive pay package, insiders say the company’s ready to promote a new CEO from within. The deal would’ve boosted Musk’s stake if Tesla hit major growth targets, from robotaxis to robotics. But if the vote fails, expect names like Tom Zhu, Tesla’s global production and China chief, to be in the mix.

This week in Tech

💰️ Nvidia Says It's Adding This Tech Company to Its Investment Portfolio
Nokia just got a major AI boost. Shares soared nearly 23% after Nvidia announced a $1 billion investment and a new strategic partnership with the Finnish tech giant. The deal gives Nvidia a 2.9% stake in Nokia as it deepens its AI infrastructure push. Nokia said the funds will fuel its shift toward AI-driven connectivity and data centers. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s stock jumped 5%, hitting a record high after CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote unveiled the move.

📖 The next chapter in OpenAI
OpenAI’s stepping out of Microsoft’s shadow, and into Big Tech territory. A new agreement between the two cements OpenAI’s for-profit transformation, valuing it at a staggering $500 billion. Microsoft keeps a 27% stake and locks in $250 billion in Azure contracts, while OpenAI gains more freedom to raise capital, hire talent, and strike new deals. It’s the next big leap for the company behind ChatGPT, and a clear signal it’s now playing in the major leagues.

🤔 Prediction Markets Are Very Accurate
Polymarket’s prediction accuracy is turning heads. According to analysis by Alex McCullough at Dune, the platform’s Brier Score, a key accuracy metric, sits at an impressive 0.0581 for 12-hour forecasts, on par with top weather models. Even high-liquidity markets scored as low as 0.0256, showing remarkable precision. While predictions slightly overestimate event odds, likely due to market or psychological bias, the results show Polymarket rivals the best forecasting systems in existence.

💰️ Surviving the AI Capex Boom
Big Tech’s AI boom may be hitting a turning point. A new analysis warns that massive AI infrastructure spending could lead to overinvestment and weaker returns, much like past capex cycles. As tech giants shift from asset-light to asset-heavy models, the report suggests investors pivot toward smaller AI players with lower costs and valuations to capture more sustainable growth.

Invest & Strategies

🔎 Interested in Trading? Read this
Trading isn’t for everyone, and that’s the point. In this follow-up letter, the author explains that trading is a competitive craft, not a shortcut to riches. It rewards curiosity, persistence, and calibration, not ego. The note lays out a roadmap of books, blogs, and bootcamps to build a trader’s mindset, emphasizing that those who succeed are self-driven learners who seek feedback, stay coachable, and embrace humility before mastery.

💼 The next couple of years for the job market could be tough
Stocks keep climbing, but jobs could be in for a bumpy ride. The S&P 500 hit record highs Friday, up 15.5% year-to-date, even as AI’s impact on employment looms. Economists warn that while AI hasn’t caused major job losses yet, a recession could trigger “transitional friction” as firms use downturns to restructure. Still, history shows the economy creates new roles after tech disruption, and investors like Sam Ro remain long-term bullish on AI-driven productivity gains.

📈 Remember April? The Market Sure Doesn’t
Patience paid off, again. Back in April, markets looked grim with the S&P 500 down 15% and the Nasdaq off 18.5%. Fast-forward to October, and those same indexes are up double digits, showing how quickly sentiment can flip. Ben Carlson’s takeaway: timing the market doesn’t work. The winners are the investors who kept buying, stayed disciplined, and rode out the storm.

⛏️ What’s Going on With Gold?
Gold’s glittering run has investors talking. The metal is up over 50% year-to-date, crushing the S&P 500’s 18% gain, sparking debate about whether stocks still make sense. But as history shows, gold’s dominance depends heavily on when you start the clock, it shines in bursts, then fades for years. Still, adding a small allocation (2–10%) can boost portfolio stability, thanks to its diversification benefits. For now, gold’s hot streak continues, but few assets test investor patience like this one.