📈 Nvidia’s Big Test This Week

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Good Morning & Happy Wednesday!

From Nvidia’s billion-dollar China problem to Trump’s plans for the Fed, there’s no shortage of market drama this week. Plus: robots are coming for labor, Lux is betting big on AI, and Cracker Barrel brings back its old-school charm.

Grab your Iced Latte and let’s get into it. ☕️ 👇️ 

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Market News

📊 Everybody is watching Nvidia 
Nvidia's gearing up to drop its Q2 earnings report this week, and all eyes are on how it handles a potential $8B blow from U.S. chip export restrictions to China. Despite that looming hit, analysts are still expecting strong numbers driven by demand for AI hardware. But with China accounting for 20-25% of data center revenue, the long-term outlook could get murky. We'll find out soon if Nvidia’s AI momentum can outrun geopolitical headwinds.

🤔 Why You Should Care About Trump's Move to Fire the Fed's Lisa Cook
President Trump’s decision to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks a major escalation in his efforts to assert control over the central bank. The White House cited a mortgage-related allegation, but Cook plans to fight the move in court. Experts warn that politicizing the Fed could damage its credibility, fuel inflation, and push long-term interest rates higher. Some see it as a direct threat to the Fed’s independence, one with serious economic consequences.

🇨🇳 Chinese stocks at decade high lure hesitant retail investors
Chinese stocks just hit a decade high, but retail investors aren’t biting. Despite the rally, many small investors remain cautious, burned by past volatility and unsure about Beijing’s next moves. State-backed funds and institutional money are driving the surge, not everyday traders. Until confidence returns, this bull run may stay top-heavy.

🍔 Cracker Barrel stock jumps as company reverts to old logo
Cracker Barrel’s stock popped after the company quietly switched back to its old logo, just days after Trump called out its rebrand. The new design had sparked backlash among conservatives online. Now, with the classic logo restored, investors and fans alike seem relieved. Sometimes, nostalgia pays dividends.

🤖 Robomart unveils new delivery robot with $3 flat fee to challenge DoorDash
Robomart just dropped a new self-driving delivery bot, and it’s gunning straight for DoorDash and Uber Eats. For a flat $3 fee, customers can grab items directly from the mobile store, no tips or markups. It’s a vending machine on wheels, cheap, fast, and no drivers needed.

Invest & Strategies

💰️ Lux Quarterly LP Letter
Lux Capital’s Q2 letter zooms in on the “Friction Frontier”, where AI meets the limits of biology, energy, and physics. With over $450M deployed across 70+ companies, they’re betting on startups that can navigate both bottlenecks and breakthroughs. From agentic AI to biotech that upgrades the healthy, Lux is chasing the edge where belief comes before understanding. In their world, the biggest returns come from whispering decades ahead while others shout about the now. This is a great read!

📆 Is this 1996 or 1999?
Markets are booming, tech is flying, and everyone's asking: is this 1996... or 1999? The difference? In ’96, the rally had room to run; by ’99, we were inches from the dot-com crash. Today’s surge in AI and mega-cap stocks feels eerily similar, but fundamentals are stronger. Still, bubble talk is creeping in, and investors are getting twitchy.

🇺🇸 Why I’m Bearish on U.S. Stocks (for the Second Time Since 2017)
Nick Maggiulli’s flashing a rare warning: he's bearish on U.S. stocks for only the second time since 2017. With valuations sky-high and investor sentiment overly optimistic, he sees risk far outweighing reward right now. Historically, markets don’t thrive when expectations are this stretched. He’s not selling everything, but he’s definitely not buying more. Sometimes, the smartest position is patience.

🤖 The Coming Labor Crisis & America’s Robot Revolution
America’s labor crisis is driving a full-blown robot revolution. With worker shortages across industries, companies are ramping up automation at record speed. This shift isn’t just for efficiency, it's becoming essential to stay competitive. As robots handle more tasks, both the workforce and broader economy face a major transformation.

🪙 A market that costs a pretty penny
U.S. stocks are getting pricey, by nearly every historical measure. RBC warns that current valuations leave little room for error, especially if earnings disappoint or rates stay high. Investors chasing momentum might be ignoring the risks piling up. When markets get this expensive, even small shocks can trigger big moves.

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