📈 Nvidia & AMD’s 15% China Surprise

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Good Morning & Happy Monday!

Inflation data this week could decide if the Fed finally cuts rates. Nvidia and AMD agree to a surprising China revenue deal, Intel’s decades-long decline comes into focus, and the race for tokenized stocks heats up. We’re also tracking Firefly’s IPO whiplash, Trump’s 401(k) push, and whether gold can really replace bonds in a classic portfolio.

Grab your Iced Latte and let’s get into it. ☕️ 👇️ 

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Market News

⚖️ Inflation in focus as Fed rate cut debate heats up
All eyes are on Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report as Wall Street debates whether the Federal Reserve will finally move toward rate cuts in September. Stocks are hovering near record highs, but weak jobs data and new tariffs are stirring fears of stagflation. With the Fed split on its next move and inflation trends uncertain, this week’s numbers could make or break the market’s rally.

🤔 Nvidia, AMD to pay US 15% of China AI chip sales in unusual move
Nvidia and AMD will give the U.S. government 15% of their AI chip sales in China to secure export licenses for key models, a move that could unlock billions in revenue. The deal, confirmed by multiple reports, raises serious political and security questions while opening access to a massive market. What this means for the tech war, and for both companies’ futures, is far from settled.

📉 How once-iconic Intel fell into a 20-year decline
Once-iconic Intel has slipped from its peak, now languishing outside the global top-10 in semiconductors due to a string of strategic missteps, from missing pivotal deals like Apple’s iPhone chip opportunity to failing in mobile and AI advances. CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took the helm in March, is steering a major turnaround fueled by deep cuts, layoffs, and a shift toward edge and agentic AI, but Intel’s road back is anything but certain.

🐎 The Race to Launch Tokenized Stocks Is On
Tokenized stocks are surging toward reality as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken push blockchain-based versions of traditional shares, offering 24/7 trading and fractional ownership. Europe is getting the first wave, but U.S. investors are stuck waiting for the SEC to weigh in, setting up a showdown between innovation and regulation. If approved, analysts say the market could unlock trillions in new liquidity and reshape how the world trades.

🪰 Firefly Aerospace stock surged at IPO but dropped 11% amid volatility
Firefly Aerospace’s stock fizzled quickly after its IPO high, dropping about 11% just a day after soaring over 50% on its Nasdaq debut, though it’s still well above the $45 listing price. The sharp swing reflects typical post-IPO profit-taking and a limited share float fueling volatility. Despite the pullback, Firefly boasts a $1.1 billion backlog, a $176.7 million NASA contract, and the historic achievement of the first private soft lunar landing.

Invest & Strategies

🔒️ Trump Wants Private Equity in 401(k)s: What It Means for you
Trump is pushing to let 401(k) savers invest in private equity, promising bigger growth potential but also bringing higher fees, less liquidity, and more risk. Supporters call it a game-changer for retirement returns, while critics warn it could put everyday investors in dangerous territory.

🧠 Wise Words on Market Cycles
Market cycles are driven as much by emotions like fear and greed as by fundamentals, with optimism pushing prices up until reality triggers sharp sell-offs. Every boom turns to bust, and patterns only become clear in hindsight, making it crucial to invest with a long-term strategy that can ride out the full cycle.

📓 10 Often-Overlooked Insights
Barry Ritholtz distills ten underrated principles for smarter investing, including the power of skepticism, treating volatility as a tool not a foe, and focusing on tail outcomes over surface-level gains. He also underscores the importance of holding investments through stress, avoiding poor information, and resisting pressure to say “yes” to every opportunity.

💭 Swap Bonds for Gold in 60/40?
You can swap out bonds in a traditional 60/40 stock–bond portfolio for gold, and it makes virtually no difference, says Meb Faber in a recent post. Gold can match bonds in preserving capital and delivering risk-adjusted returns over time, suggesting that investors might rethink the conventional fixed-income playbook.

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