📈 Markets Tank, AI Wobbles, Gold Pops, What Now?

Good Morning & Happy Friday.

Big moves across markets and tech today from the Fed wobbling on rate cuts and a sharp sell-off in stocks to the U.S. and Switzerland inching toward a tariff truce and Michael Burry shutting down his fund.

Samsung’s chip-price shock, Blue Origin’s big rocket win, China’s EV distortions, and fresh AI-bubble warnings also hit the headlines, while investors sized up 50-year mortgages, surging gold, private-market risks, and even a hedge fund built around Hermès bags.

Grab you Flat White and let’s get into it! ☕️

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Market News

📉 Fed Doubts Grow Over December Rate Cut
Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari just threw some cold water on the idea of another December rate cut, saying he didn’t even support the last one and still isn’t sure what he’ll back next month. He says the economy keeps showing “underlying resilience”, meaning the Fed might pump the brakes on cutting again. Meanwhile, more officials are sliding into “hold” mode, and markets are listening, rate-cut odds for December have plunged from near-certain to basically a coin flip.

👇️ A tumble in tech leads the stock sell-off as rate cut pessimism rises
Wall Street got rocked yesterday, and futures continue to drop, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all sliding as the historic government shutdown wrapped and traders panicked over missing data. December rate-cut odds have crashed from 95% to a coin flip. Tech led the flop, momentum names like Palantir and Applied Digital cratered, and speculative AI/quantum/energy plays got absolutely steamrolled.

🇨🇭 US, Switzerland close in on deal to ease Trump's crippling tariffs
Switzerland and the U.S. just inched way closer to a tariff truce, with both sides calling Thursday’s talks “very positive” and Swiss officials hinting a deal is basically done. The big move on the table: slashing Trump’s brutal 39% tariffs down to 15%, a shift Swiss industries say would be a “ray of hope.” Behind the scenes, Switzerland pitched a plan to shrink its massive U.S. trade surplus, while U.S. officials signaled Trump could sign off if the terms look good.

📕 Michael Burry of 'Big Short' fame is closing his hedge fund
Michael Burry, yes, the “Big Short” guy, is shutting down Scion Asset Management, telling investors he’ll liquidate by year-end because his view of value “has not been in sync with the markets.” The SEC now shows Scion’s registration as terminated, and Burry’s already teasing a pivot, posting: “On to much better things Nov 25th.” He’s been firing bearish shots at mega-cap tech and AI names, including a $9.2M put position against Palantir.

🏰 Disney Stock Falls Nearly 8% as Revenue Misses Estimate
Disney’s latest quarter was a mood swing in chart form, profits up, revenue down, and Wall Street only cared about the latter, smacking the stock nearly 8%. Earnings beat at $1.11 per share, but revenue missed expectations thanks to no blockbuster releases and the company’s aging linear TV business dragging hard. Add in the YouTube TV blackout hitting ESPN and you’ve got even more pressure on the entertainment arm.

This week in Tech

🧠 Samsung hikes memory chip prices by up to 60% as shortage worsens
Samsung just cranked up memory-chip prices by as much as 60%, a massive jump driven by the global sprint to build AI data centers, and buyers are swallowing the hikes because supply is that tight. DDR5 modules that cost $149 in September are now going for $239, with similar spikes across 16GB, 64GB, 96GB, and 128GB parts. Server makers and cloud builders are basically panic-buying, accepting they won’t get enough inventory, and the ripple effects are ugly, smartphones, PCs, and other hardware are all about to get more expensive.

🚀 Blue Origin sticks first New Glenn rocket landing and launches NASA spacecraft
Blue Origin just pulled off a SpaceX-style milestone, landing its massive New Glenn booster on a drone ship, and doing it on only the rocket’s second attempt. Even Musk and Shotwell tipped their hats. But the real flex? New Glenn also delivered its first commercial payload, two NASA spacecraft headed to Mars to study the planet’s atmosphere. With a successful landing and a clean deployment, Blue Origin just signaled it’s ready to challenge SpaceX for the heavy-lift crown.

🚗 China’s EV Market Is Imploding, but not in the way you think
China’s EV market is so cutthroat that dealerships are now selling “used” electric cars that have literally never been driven, all because automakers are pushing inventory out the door to hit inflated sales targets. Dealers register cars as “sold,” then dump them at discount, a tactic so rampant that The People’s Daily blasted it as market distortion and “data worship.” To outsiders, Chinese EVs look like a symbol of tech dominance. Inside China, they’re a warning sign: Beijing’s heavy-handed market meddling is creating pressures that could ripple far beyond its borders.

😅 Bitcoin is down in Q4 but not as bad as its largest corporate treasury firms
Bitcoin may be down 14% this quarter, but bitcoin treasury firms are getting hammered far worse, with names like Strategy, Metaplanet, and Twenty One Capital sliding 30–35% as the “pivot to BTC” glow fades. Several DATs now trade at or below 1 mNAV, meaning their stock is worth less than the bitcoin they hold. Analysts warn the mood is “horrible,” the flywheel has flipped, and consolidation, or even forced asset sales, may be coming if BTC doesn’t rebound. Still, some investors are doubling down, betting firms like Strategy can grow BTC per share even with mNAV underwater.

🫧 AI companies admit they’re worried about a bubble
Top tech CEOs are now saying the quiet part out loud: the AI sector is looking bubbly, with valuations soaring even as many startups have “no revenue… just noise and vibe.” DeepL’s chief says the signs are clear, Picsart’s CEO agrees, and Michael Burry’s warnings about overstated profits at hyperscalers have only amplified the anxiety. But no one’s bearish on AI itself, the long-term industrial outlook is still glowing, even if the financial side feels frothy. As Lyft’s CEO put it: “We are absolutely in a financial bubble… but the tech is transformational.”

Invest & Strategies

🏘️ Trump Floats 50-Year Mortgages, But Would You Want One?
Trump’s push for a 50-year mortgage sounds like affordability magic, but the math doesn’t really deliver, monthly payments drop only about $100 on a median home, while interest costs explode and equity builds at a crawl. Experts warn the idea misses the real problem: a 3–4 million home shortage, not loan length. Longer terms just juice demand, pushing prices even higher. After 10 years, a 50-year borrower builds $40K less equity, and after 20 years the gap balloons to $115K, a huge hit to long, term wealth.

⛏️ Where Do Gold Prices Go From Here? Here's What Experts Say
Gold is heating up again, rebounding to around $4,260/oz after slipping from last month’s record highs, and analysts say the rally still has legs. Demand from U.S. gold ETFs is surging, with trading volume hitting a record $208B per day, easily offsetting weaker jewelry and bar buying. UBS says another 10% jump to $4,700 is on the table if political or market risks flare, and the backdrop is already shaky: a short-term government funding deal, legal uncertainty around Trump’s tariff powers, and the possibility of more Fed rate cuts.

⚠️ Private Markets: Why Retail Investors Should Stay Away
A new CFA Institute analysis warns retail investors to think twice before diving into private markets, arguing that illiquidity, opaque performance, and misaligned incentives already trip up institutional pros, let alone smaller investors. With most PE funds failing to return capital on time, secondary markets thin, and performance eroding as the industry chases scale over skill, the risks stack fast.

🛍️ You Can Now Invest In A Hedge Fund Dedicated To Hermès Bags
There’s now a hedge fund built entirely around Hermès Birkin and Kelly bags, and early investors are already banking real returns. Luxus, backed by Christie’s, launched two funds that treat the ultra-exclusive bags like investment-grade assets, with the first raising $1M and netting 34% ROI in just 43 days. The pitch is simple: Birkins behave like gold, steadily appreciating thanks to scarcity, cultural hype, and a roaring secondary market. Luxus handles authentication, curation, and resale, and investors even get first dibs on the bags at discounted prices.