📈 Is the Worst Over?

Plus: Europe Retaliates

Author

Journals GG
March 12, 2025

Good Morning & Happy Wednesday!

Markets are on edge as stocks continue their sharp decline, with the S&P 500 nearing correction territory. Is this just a bump in the road or the start of something bigger? Let’s dive into what’s driving the sell-off, and where things might go next.

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Grab your espresso and let's get into it! ☕️👇️

Markets

📉 The stock market's sharp drop might have already priced in a 'shallow' recession
Stocks are nearing a full 10% correction as recession fears mount. HSBC’s Nicole Inui suggests the market may be close to bottoming, with historical sell-offs averaging 11%-12% during downturns. The big question: Is there more pain ahead, or is the worst over?

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🔻 Just How Bad is the Stock Market's Current Sell-Off?
Over the past six trading days, the index has tumbled 5.7%, its sharpest drop since 2022. With stocks now 8.6% off their all-time high, the market is edging dangerously close to correction territory. What does this mean?

📆 CPI Data Today will lead to more volatility
Wall Street’s rollercoaster ride isn’t over yet. After weeks of wild swings, the S&P 500 now braces for another shake-up as fresh inflation data drops Wednesday. Options traders predict a 1.5% move in either direction, almost double the usual volatility on CPI days. The CPI likely rose 2.9% in in the 12 months through February, that would be down from January's 3% rise.

🇨🇦 Trump threatens, then reverses, new Canadian tariffs
Trump’s tariff drama took another twist. On Tuesday, he slapped new tariffs on Canada, then quickly reversed course after Ontario agreed to drop electricity export fees. The move added to market volatility and escalated tensions with a key trading partner.

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