🧠 Is the AI Trade Back on?

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Good morning & Happy Friday!

China cracks open the door to trade talks, Big Tech rallies on AI hype, and Strategy goes all-in on Bitcoin (again). We’re also looking at mixed signals from Apple and Amazon, Reddit’s ad-fueled comeback, and why the economy’s not as shaky as it looks, for now!

Grab your flat white and let’s break it down. ☕️

Markets

🤝 China says 'door is open' to trade talks with the US
Despite Trump’s tough talk, the U.S. has quietly reached out to China to restart trade talks, and Beijing’s listening. China confirmed it’s evaluating the approach and has even started easing pressure by exempting some U.S. goods from steep tariffs. Publicly, both sides are still posturing, but behind the scenes, the ice is cracking. A real breakthrough could be on the horizon, if Washington shows “sincerity,” as China puts it.

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😰 Strategy Raising Another $21B to Buy Bitcoin
Strategy (MSTR) took a $5.9 billion hit on its Bitcoin holdings last quarter, posting a $16.49 loss per share, but it’s not backing down. Michael Saylor’s firm has nearly finished spending its last $21B stock offering and just launched another one of the same size to buy more BTC. Their software revenue dipped, but Bitcoin is the main event now. With 553,555 BTC on the books, worth around $53B, Saylor’s doubling down, not blinking.

🧠 Is the AI Trade Back on After Meta and Microsoft Earnings?
Big Tech roared back Thursday as blowout earnings from Microsoft and Meta reignited the AI trade. Microsoft’s cloud revenue jumped 21%, and Meta’s AI tools now serve nearly a billion users monthly, fueling a surge across AI and infrastructure stocks. Nvidia rebounded, Arista popped 7%, and even power providers like Vistra and Constellation soared on renewed demand. After months of AI doubts and tariff turmoil, Wall Street sees signs the bull run still has legs.

🍎 Apple and Amazon beat expectations, but not all’s rosy underneath
Apple and Amazon beat Wall Street’s expectations last quarter, but cracks are showing beneath the surface. Apple’s Services division missed targets, and Amazon’s cloud revenue disappointed for the third straight time. Both CEOs warned that Trump’s tariffs could cloud the outlook for the rest of 2025.

📈 Reddit stock pops
Reddit’s betting big on ad growth, and it’s working. The company forecast Q2 revenue above expectations, sending shares up in after-hours trading. Even with some user traffic hits from Google’s evolving search algorithms, Reddit’s ad tech push is drawing in advertisers. As rivals face shrinking budgets from trade tensions, Reddit’s becoming a more attractive digital ad player.

Quick News

• Oil major Shell launches $3.5 billion share buyback after first-quarter profit beat.

• Friday's Jobs Report Just Got More Important.

• Morgan Stanley Plans to Offer Crypto Trading to E*Trade Clients.

• Dollar on backfoot ahead of payrolls data even as trade talks go on.

• Apple stock slips after company warns of $900 million tariff headwind.

• Oil edges up as China opens door for trade talks with US.

• Stripe shows iOS developers how to avoid Apple’s App Store commission.

• How Much Money Do The Top Income Earners Make?

Economy

Economic Weakness Is Being Exaggerated – For Now

The U.S. economy may have stumbled last quarter, but don’t mistake that for a full-on breakdown. The drop was largely a mirage, businesses rushed to stock up on imports before Trump’s new tariffs hit, creating what looked like weakness. But beneath that noise, consumer spending stayed surprisingly solid, and the job market held its ground through April.

The real test is still a few months out. Companies are clearly nervous, but they haven’t pulled the trigger on major spending cuts—yet. Big players like Alphabet and Meta are even ramping up investment, pouring tens of billions into AI, a move that signals long-term confidence despite short-term jitters. At the same time, consumers are still swiping cards, visiting casinos, and generally carrying on like the economy isn’t under threat.

But July looms large. That’s when Trump’s 90-day tariff pause ends, and with it comes clarity, or more chaos. Companies are holding off on layoffs and capex cuts for now, but that patience won’t last forever. If the outlook stays murky or worsens, we could see corporate America finally hit the brakes heading into 2026.