📈 China Just Banned Nvidia Chips

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Good Morning

Markets are holding their breath as the Fed prepares to cut rates, but that’s not the only story shaking things up.

A surprise AI chip ban from China hits Nvidia, while tech stocks rally in Hong Kong. We’re also tracking Shkreli’s latest short, new recession signals, and how Social Security quietly props up American wealth.

Grab your Iced Latte and let’s get into it. ☕️ 👇️ 

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Market News

📊 Futures stall as Wall Street braces for Fed decision
All eyes are on the Fed. Wall Street’s bracing for what’s expected to be the first rate cut of 2025, with a 25 basis-point drop seen as all but locked in. But the real suspense? What comes next. Investors are watching for the Fed’s dot plot and Powell’s press conference, hoping for clarity on how many more cuts could follow. Meanwhile.

‼️ China tells tech firms to stop buying Nvidia's AI chips
China just hit Nvidia with a major blow. Beijing has reportedly ordered tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance to cancel orders for Nvidia’s AI chips, escalating its push to ditch U.S. tech dependencies. The ban targets the new RTX Pro 6000D, going further than previous restrictions, and comes just days after China accused Nvidia of anti-monopoly violations. Nvidia shares dipped 1% on the news.

🇨🇳 China Tech Stocks Jump as AI Boom Pushes Index to Four-Year High
Chinese tech stocks are roaring back. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 4.3% Wednesday, hitting its highest level since late 2021, powered by renewed AI hype and easing U.S.-China tensions. Baidu led the charge, jumping 16%, with Alibaba, JD.com, and SMIC not far behind. Up 42% this year, the index is on a 7-week win streak, and investors are finally warming back up to China's undervalued tech giants. AI rollouts, robotaxis, and custom chips are helping China reassert itself in the global tech race.

🤖 Business Is Booming for Many Tech Giants. They're Laying Workers Off Anyway
Oracle just hit a record high, days after laying off hundreds. It's the latest example of a growing trend: Big Tech is booming on AI, but cutting jobs to fund it. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are all trimming staff while pouring billions into AI infrastructure. Amazon’s CEO says AI will likely shrink their workforce long-term, and Goldman Sachs estimates up to 7% of U.S. jobs could eventually be replaced. Still, economists think those job losses may be short-lived, just like past tech shifts.

🏢 Why Trump's push to nix quarterly reporting may succeed this time
Trump’s back with a familiar pitch. Scrap quarterly earnings reports. This time, it might actually happen. With more sway over the SEC and a deregulation-friendly chair in Paul Atkins, Trump’s push to switch to semiannual disclosures is gaining traction. Analysts say the idea could become reality by 2027, as the White House leans harder on independent agencies.

📈 Investors haven't been this bullish on stocks since February
Wall Street’s feeling risky again - but not reckless. Fund managers are loading back into stocks, pushing global equity allocations to a 7-month high, even as economic warning lights flash. Cash levels remain cautious at 3.9%, but the rally is gaining steam: The S&P 500 just hit another record, and the Nasdaq’s on a 6-day win streak. Yet, the rally leans heavily on a few megacap tech giants, and nearly 80% of managers now expect stagflation ahead. Rate cuts may be coming, but cracks in the labor market raise big questions.

Invest & Strategies

😅 The Investing Risk You Might Be Overlooking When Buying Popular Stocks
When too many investors pile into the same stocks, things can get messy. A new study from BlackRock researchers highlights crowdedness as a legitimate risk factor, not just a market quirk. Using 13F data, they show that stocks held by small, active, high-turnover investors tend to underperform, especially during market stress. The takeaway? Crowded trades distort prices and can lead to sharp reversals, with BlackRock’s new factor showing a -1.1% annualized return. For investors, adding a crowdedness lens to portfolio construction could sharpen risk management and expose hidden vulnerabilities.

🏘️ Opendoor stock falls as Martin Shkreli announces short position
Opendoor shares slipped 5% after Martin Shkreli revealed he’s shorting the stock at $9.36, calling it “an obvious short.” He plans to conduct calls with former employees, customers, and competitors, and says he’ll share transcripts or invites “as appropriate.” The move follows Shkreli’s successful short of aTyr Pharma, and interrupts Opendoor’s recent rebound, which had been driven by leadership changes and renewed interest from activist investor Eric Jackson.

🤔 Stocks, Housing & Social Security: What Matters Most?
For most Americans, Social Security is a far bigger asset than people realize. A new CBO report shows it made up 20% of total U.S. household wealth by the end of 2022, nearly equal to all retirement accounts combined. While the top 10% holds most of the stock market, Social Security represents over 40% of financial assets for the bottom 50%, and nearly half for the bottom 25%.

💹 The Big Four Recession Indicators
Economists often point to four key signals when spotting a recession, and right now, those signals are mixed. The “Big Four” indicators, employment, industrial production, retail sales, and real income, have all grown since the 2020 recession, but momentum has slowed.

As of August 2025, retail sales remain 1.05% below their 2022 peak, while industrial production and income are just off their highs. Employment, however, is sitting at a record level. For now, no clear recession signal, but the margin is narrowing.

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