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Good morning!

AI rivalry is heating up as Alibaba takes on DeepSeek, ASML shares surge on booming demand, and all eyes are on the Fed’s first meeting of the year. Meanwhile, retail traders made a bold move on Nvidia, and Trump’s latest fiscal policies could shake up markets.

Grab your Americano and let's get into it! ☕️👇️

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Markets

📈 ASML shares jump 10% as surge in orders defies fears of DeepSeek hitting AI chip demand
ASML posted a 169% surge in Q4 net bookings to €7.09 billion, signaling strong demand for its chipmaking tools. This comes despite concerns over AI spending after DeepSeek’s budget-friendly model launch which scared off investors on Monday. Today’s news has eased some of those concerns, pushing ASML stock up 9%.

🤖 Alibaba releases AI model it claims surpasses DeepSeek-V3
Alibaba dropped its Qwen 2.5-Max AI model on Lunar New Year, a rare move signaling urgency amid DeepSeek’s rapid rise. The company claims Qwen 2.5 outperforms DeepSeek-V3, intensifying China’s AI rivalry. DeepSeek’s earlier V2 model had already sparked a pricing war, and now competition is heating up. Alibaba stock edged up 1% on the news. With Chinese AI firms gaining ground, it’s yet another challenge to U.S. dominance in the AI race.

🤝 What to expect from Fed meeting Wednesday
The Federal Reserve kicked off its first meeting of the year Tuesday, facing a tough balancing act between stable employment and persistent inflation. While no rate cut is expected this time, the Fed remains cautious, especially with Trump’s economic policies, particularly tariffs, potentially reshaping the outlook. This marks the first FOMC meeting under Trump’s second term, reigniting tensions between him and Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the central bank’s independence.

🏦 Trump directs suspension of all federal grants and loans
The Trump administration has ordered a freeze on all federal grants and loans starting Tuesday, signaling a stronger push for fiscal austerity. The move suggests a more aggressive approach to spending cuts than in Trump’s first term, with potential economic consequences. This could potentially help long-term fiscal health, putting downward pressure on inflation, justifying future Fed rate cuts. However, it could also slow growth.

✋ How retail traders won the Nvidia rout on Monday
Retail investors pounced on Nvidia’s dip, raking in billions within 24 hours by buying at massive volumes. While the broader market sold off on Monday, individual traders saw an opportunity and loaded up on shares instead. The sheer scale of net buying was "astounding," according to Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick, who said he’s never seen an imbalance that extreme.

Quick News

• Higher than expected engineering costs and other difficulties forced Lockheed Martin to book $2 billion in losses on two classified programs in 2024, sending the stock lower.

• Stocks make small gains ahead of the FED Decision.

• Why DeepSeek's AI Model Has Wall Street Bullish on Software Stocks.

• DeepSeek reaches No. 1 on US Play Store.

• Norway wealth fund posts record $222 billion annual profit on tech boom.

• Can Trump Really ‘Demand’ Interest Rates Go Down?

• JetBlue Plummets 25%.