📈 Buffett’s $9.7B Swing, His Last Big Bet?

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Good Morning & Happy Monday!

Markets are gearing up for a massive week, earnings, inflation data, and global shakeups are all in play. From Netflix’s report to Japan’s political pivot, plus a closer look at Bitcoin’s latest crash, Berkshire’s big buy, and why gold is suddenly hot again, here’s what you need to know to start your week sharp.

Grab you Flat White and let’s get into it! ☕️ 

Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might

Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.

Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.

Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.

Masterworks lets everyday investors invest in shares of multimillion-dollar artworks by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

And they’re not just buying. They’re exiting—with net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5% among their 23 sales.*

Wall Street won’t talk about this. But the wealthy already are. Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

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_{*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.}

Market News

📆 What to Expect in Markets This Week
Big moves expected this week as markets brace for September’s delayed CPI data, set to drop Friday, and a flood of key earnings. Tesla takes center stage Wednesday with earnings and potential AI/robotics updates from Elon Musk, while Netflix, Intel, and Ford also report.

Inflation numbers could steer the Fed’s next interest rate move, with the report likely being their final data point before deciding. Plus, Wall Street’s eyeing home sales, consumer sentiment, and PMIs for signs of economic momentum, or a stall.

📈 Futures rise with government shutdown, earnings season in focus
Stock futures ticked higher Monday as Wall Street gears up for a blockbuster week of earnings and key inflation data, all while the government shutdown drags on. The Dow rose 0.2%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing 0.3% and 0.4%, boosted by hopes that U.S.-China trade tensions are easing after fresh tariff exemptions and diplomatic signals from both sides.

🗾 The Takaichi trade makes a comeback
Japan’s markets rallied hard Monday as the “Takaichi trade” gained steam following a coalition deal that could pave the way for Japan’s first female prime minister. The Nikkei soared 2.9% to a record high, with investors cheering Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance, even as the yen weakened slightly. Surprisingly, even long-term bonds caught a bid, boosted by relief over a functioning (though minority) government.

👀 Netflix (NFLX) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect
Netflix reports earnings Tuesday after the bell, with Wall Street expecting $11.52B in revenue and $6.97 EPS, both up year over year. The streamer’s been steady, missing revenue estimates just once in two years, and now enters earnings down 2.3% this past month, less pain than its peers. 310.6M users and a strong EPS outlook suggest solid footing, but with the sector under pressure, Netflix’s results could set the tone for tech this quarter.

📉 9 Biggest Bitcoin Crashes in History
October 10’s crypto wipeout erased a staggering $19 billion in leveraged positions, but surprisingly, it didn’t crack the list of Bitcoin’s worst percentage drops. BTC held up better than past disasters, like the Mt. Gox meltdown or the FTX implosion. Still, the scale of liquidations shows just how overheated the market had become. Here’s a look at the 9 Biggest Bitcoin Crashes in History.

Invest & Strategies

🔎 A closer look at Berkshire Hathaway's $9.7 billion acquisition of OxyChem
Berkshire Hathaway just dropped $9.7B in cash to acquire OxyChem, marking its biggest deal since Alleghany, and potentially Buffett’s final big swing before Greg Abel takes the helm. Why it matters? OxyChem is a global chemicals heavyweight, and Berkshire scooped it up at a bargain as profits slumped. Analysts love the structure: cash over preferreds, smart timing, and long-term upside.

🫧 RealTime Bubble Checklist
Everyone’s screaming “bubble,” but the data says otherwise. Yes, valuations are rich and returns are hot, but most classic warning signs just aren’t there. Think late-stage bull market, not Dotcom 2.0. Ignore the noise, but maybe don’t expect 20% a year, either.

💰️ Have $10K, $25K, or $50K? Here’s Where To Put Your Savings Before the Fed Cuts Rates
Top savings accounts are still paying up to 5.00%, but not for long. With the Fed already cutting rates and another trim likely Oct. 29, these juicy yields could vanish fast. Whether it’s high-yield accounts, CDs, or Treasury options, now’s the time to lock in solid returns before they slide.

🤔 Why I Don’t Own Any Gold
Gold is up over 60% this year, and nearly 30% in just the last 3 months, but not everyone’s buying in. While some see it as timeless insurance against inflation and government chaos, others view it as a non-productive relic with too much baggage. With its boom-or-bust history and lack of cash flow, is gold a smart diversifier, or a shiny distraction?

🗣️ Warren Buffett’s Investing Advice: Simple, Not Smart
While many young investors chase quick wins in crypto and meme stocks, Warren Buffett’s long-game mindset tells a very different story. In a world obsessed with beating the market, Buffett’s track record suggests there might be a simpler, smarter path to wealth. Is it time to rethink your strategy?

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