- Investing Journal
- Posts
- š Bitcoin is down. Gold is dancing
š Bitcoin is down. Gold is dancing
Tariffs, tantrums, and $1,300 Broadway tickets, whatās happening to everyday experiences? Plus: market swings, goldās surge, and why even smart investors fumble the sell decision.
Good Morning & Happy Friday!
Markets are moving fast, banks are shaky, goldās on fire, and AI ethics just hit a new frontier. Plus: Paul Tudor Jones makes a bold pivot, mortgage rates find a new normal, and one momās $3,000 birthday lesson hits harder than any chart. Letās dive in.
Grab you Flat White and letās get into it! āļø
Crash Expert: āThis Looks Like 1929ā ā 70,000 Hedging Here
Mark Spitznagel, who made $1B in a single day during the 2015 flash crash, warns markets are mimicking 1929. Yeah, just another oracle spouting gloom and doom, right?
Vanguard and Goldman Sachs forecast just 5% and 3% annual S&P returns respectively for the next decade (2024-2034).
Bonds? Not much better.
Enough warning signalsāwhatās something investors can actually do to diversify this week?
Almost no one knows this, but postwar and contemporary art appreciated 11.2% annually with near-zero correlation to equities from 1995ā2024, according to Masterworks Data.
And sure⦠billionaires like Bezos and Gates can make headlines at auction, but what about the rest of us?
Masterworks makes it possible to invest in legendary artworks by Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more ā without spending millions.
23 exits. Net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5%. $1.2 billion invested.
Shares in new offerings can sell quickly butā¦
*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
Market News
š¦ Concerns About Bad Loans Rocked Bank Stocks
Regional bank stocks got rocked Thursday after Zions Bancorp revealed itās writing off $50 million in shady loans tied to borrower fraud. That announcement triggered a 13% plunge in Zionsā stock, dragging the KBW Regional Bank Index down 6%.
The fear? Lending standards may be cracking, especially with recent bankruptcies like Tricolor and First Brands exposing deeper issues, fraudulent loan pledges, disappearing funds, and a massive $2.3B hole left behind.
JPMorganās Jamie Dimon didnāt mince words: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more."
š
Tariff rollercoaster prompts Chinese exporters to 'give up' on US
Chinese exporters are ditching the U.S. market as unpredictable tariff threats under President Trump drive them toward buyers in Europe, Latin America, and Africa instead. Factories that once thrived on American orders, like Gstar Electronics, say theyāre now selling at a loss just to stay afloat. Despite a 7.1% export growth overall, manufacturers warn itās no victory. āLosing the U.S. is like a train losing its engine,ā said one factory boss, as cutthroat competition in new markets slashes prices and shrinks profits.
āļø Bitcoin sinks with safe haven bets 'clearly favoring gold' after crypto washout
Bitcoinās October ride has been anything but smooth, spiking early on as a hedge against U.S. shutdown fears, then crashing from $121,000 to $104,000 after Trumpās tariff threats. While gold surged past $4,300 to all-time highs, Bitcoin has stumbled, now down over 9% this month. Analysts point to reduced volatility in gold and heavy central bank buying as key drivers, with Fundstrat's Sean Farrell suggesting crypto may catch up later. But for now, as Ed Yardeni notes, the crypto marketās wild swings and $19 billion in liquidations have rattled investors and drained liquidity.
š„ Gold Goes Nuclear as Prices Smash $4,380
Gold just smashed through $4,380, up 65% on the year, making this its best run since 1979, yes, the year "Another Brick in the Wall" dropped. Silverās even hotter, soaring 85% and breaking past $53. A mix of geopolitical tension, rate cut bets, and shaky regional banks is fueling the frenzy, with gold now riding a nine-week winning streak and zero signs of slowing down.
š¤ OpenAI pauses Sora video generations of Martin Luther King Jr
OpenAI has paused the ability to generate videos of Martin Luther King Jr. in its AI video tool, Sora, after his estate raised concerns over ādisrespectful depictionsā being circulated. OpenAI says public figures and their families should have a say in how their likeness is used, as debates over AI ethics continue to heat up.
Invest & Strategies
š Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones Just Sold All of His Palantir Shares and Is Piling Into This Quantum Computing Stock
Tudor Investment Corporation just dumped Palantir and made a bold bet on quantum, scooping up over 900,000 shares in a new stock pick. The move, revealed in Paul Tudor Jonesā latest 13F filing, shows the legendary investor pivoting away from big data and toward next-gen tech. Given Jonesā track record, he called the 1987 crash, Wall Street is paying close attention.
šļø Why Mortgage Rates Might Not Keep Going Down
Mortgage rates have dipped to 6.3%, their lowest in a year, but donāt expect a return to pandemic-era lows, analysts warn. Even with the Fed cutting short-term rates, long-term bond yields remain elevated due to sticky inflation, keeping mortgage rates anchored. Experts expect rates to hover around 6% through 2026, as affordability challenges continue to squeeze homebuyers.
š¶ Wealth for Yourself vs. Wealth for Others
Becoming a dad in six months has flipped my worldview, suddenly, itās not just about me anymore. After years of chasing experiences, status, and personal fulfillment, Iām starting to see how easily that pursuit can lose meaning. Now, every dollar I earn feels like it has a bigger purpose, my family, my future kid, and the people I care about. The goal isnāt just to build wealth for myself, but to use it for others. That shift, I think, is the start of something deeper.
āļøWhen to Sell?
Building a solid investment plan is only half the battle, sticking with it is the real challenge. Too many investors obsess over entry points but āwing itā when it comes to holding or selling. Short-term performance tells you little, and even great investments can underperform for years. Instead, success lies in patience, clear sell criteria, and emotional discipline, knowing when to act, when to wait, and how to avoid fooling yourself in the process.
šµ Everything costs $1,000
I thought I hacked birthday season, no party, just a meaningful memory. But what started as a sweet parenting win spiraled into a $3,000 reality check. What happens when even making memories starts to feel like a luxury purchase? This isnāt just about concerts and Broadway, itās about how late-stage capitalism is changing what we give our kids, and what we expect to. If you've ever questioned the cost of a "special moment," this oneās for you.
Our Recommendations:
š»ļø MEXC - Where we find and trade Crypto with low fees.
š TradingView - Software we use to chart stocks.
š Trezor - Our favorite hardware wallet to keep our Crypto secure.
š¦ Kraken - Where we buy crypto with cash / withdraw profit to our bank.
š