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Good Morning & Happy Friday

AI deals are heating up, Congress is melting down, and global markets are stealing the spotlight from the U.S. Meanwhile, Figma’s flying high, gold’s cooling off, and Michael Mauboussin drops a masterclass on thinking in base rates.

Grab your cappuccino and let’s get into it. ☕️👇

🫧 Why Wall Street Analysts Say We’re Not in an AI Bubble… Yet
Wall Street’s raising an eyebrow at a flurry of circular AI deals, think OpenAI spending billions on Nvidia and AMD, while Nvidia turns around and invests in OpenAI. Skeptics say it’s Dotcom déjà vu, warning of inflated demand and bubble behavior. But major players like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America aren’t convinced, arguing the fundamentals are far stronger than in 1999. OpenAI alone could burn through $1 trillion, but analysts say the big tech bankroll backing the boom sets this cycle apart, for now.

🏢 Republican unity to avoid shutdown concessions is cracking after failed votes
Republican confidence is cracking after six failed shutdown votes and growing public blame. With no progress on Trump's promised "permanent" cuts, some GOP lawmakers are now urging leadership to negotiate, especially over ACA subsidies. Trump, meanwhile, is signaling openness to healthcare talks, though his message keeps shifting. Democrats, once on defense, now appear to have the upper hand.

📉 European defense stocks slide amid Middle East peace deal
European markets opened mixed Friday as investors reacted to a potential Middle East ceasefire brokered by Trump and fresh China export controls. Defense and mining stocks slid, while Jyske Bank surged 4.6% after boosting profit guidance. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing action against Italy’s “golden power rule,” which has stalled bank mergers.

⛏ Gold Retreats, While Silver Rises to Near Record in Wild Ride
Gold slid below $4,000 an ounce Friday as traders locked in gains after a rapid rally, while silver surged near its highest level since 1980. Gold hit a record $4,059 midweek but has since cooled, dropping to around $3,963. Silver, up 70% this year, continues to shine on both investor interest and strong industrial demand. Despite the pullback, gold is still on track for its eighth straight weekly gain.

🎨 Figma Stock Up 45% in One Week as Traders Cheer OpenAI Integration
Figma stock has rocketed 45% in just one week, riding high on the back of a flashy new ChatGPT integration unveiled by OpenAI’s Sam Altman. The live demo, turning a sketch into a diagram via voice, lit up traders, triggering Figma’s best three-day rally since its IPO. This move plugs Figma directly into ChatGPT’s ecosystem, fueling hopes of a major comeback for the design platform.

🧃 The New Normal of Stock Market Concentration
Stock market concentration isn’t new, but it may be the new normal. Despite years of hand-wringing, the dominance of the “Mag 7” continues, with mega-cap tech stocks powering both returns and earnings growth. History shows turnover in top stocks happens gradually, with about 30–40% rotation every decade. But today’s giants have deep moats, government protection, and relentless cash flow. This kind of top-heavy market could stick around for a while, just like it did in the 1960s and ’70s.

🤔 Why do people get paid to invest their money?
Why do investors get paid just for pressing "Buy" on an index fund? Noah Smith argues it’s not quite as effortless, or unfair, as it looks. Investors sacrifice consumption and take on real risk, even if the process seems passive. Plus, their money helps signal confidence in the economy, nudging capital where it’s needed. It may not feel "fair" to everyone, but it plays a role in how capitalism works.

🌎 Global Markets Outpace the U.S. Through Q3
For the first time in years, international and emerging markets are outpacing U.S. stocks, and by a wide margin. Through Q3 2025, 36 countries are beating the S&P 500, with 35 posting gains over 20%. While AI and tech have dominated headlines, global diversification is quietly paying off, reminding investors why staying disciplined and diversified still matters.

👀 The Investing Edge You’re Ignoring
Michael Mauboussin’s key investing lesson? Start with what usually happens. Instead of building forecasts from personal stories, use base rates, historical outcomes of similar situations, to guide decisions. This "outside view" can feel unnatural but keeps expectations grounded. In a world full of overconfidence and shortcuts, knowing the odds may be your biggest edge.

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