📈 2024 predictions

Plus: Crypto is holding up surprisingly well

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Markets

How will America’s economy fare in 2024?(4 minute ready)
The economic narrative for the current year has largely unfolded, shifting the focus to the upcoming year. Next year's economic landscape diverges from monotonous predictability. According to Goldman Sachs, the anticipated growth in America stands at a robust 2.1%, approximately twice the projection of UBS economists.

Varied predictions regarding inflation emerge, with some banks anticipating a 50% decrease in 2024, while others envision it persisting around 3%, well above the Federal Reserve's target. Expectations surrounding the Fed's actions on interest rates span from minimal adjustments to a significant 2.75 percentage points in rate cuts.

These diverse outlooks reflect more than a mere difference in growth forecasts. Goldman economists foresee sustained high growth and inflation, contrasting with UBS, which predicts a substantial slowdown in both.

Bitcoin Shakes Off Binance News, Rises Above $37K as Spot ETF Approval Eyed (2 minute read)
Despite initial turbulence triggered by the leak of a potential massive settlement for U.S. criminal charges against Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, crypto markets have exhibited resilience this week. Confirmation on Tuesday of a $4.3 billion fine and a guilty plea from Binance's founder and CEO, Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, who has agreed to step down from the company, initially led to a dip in bitcoin below $36,000. However, markets have since rebounded, and bitcoin is now up by approximately 1.5% over the past 24 hours, surpassing $37,400, slightly higher than its starting point at around $37,000 for the week.

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Investing

NVIDIA sued for stealing trade secrets after screensharing blunder showed rival company's code (2 minute read)
NVIDIA is currently facing legal action initiated by French automotive company Valeo following a screensharing incident involving one of NVIDIA's engineers, Mohammad Moniruzzaman. In a meeting between the two companies in 2022, Moniruzzaman inadvertently displayed Valeo's source code files on his computer screen.

Valeo's employees quickly identified the exposed code, capturing screenshots before notifying Moniruzzaman of his error. It's worth noting that Valeo and NVIDIA collaborate on an advanced parking and driving assistance technology provided by a manufacturer to its customers.

While Valeo used to oversee both the software and hardware aspects of the manufacturer's parking assistance tech, the larger corporation secured the contract for developing the software in 2021. Valeo's lawsuit alleges that Moniruzzaman, a former employee who contributed to the development of its parking and driving assistance systems, recognized the value of his exposure to proprietary technologies and sought employment with NVIDIA.

‘T-bill and chill’: Why Jack Bogle’s strategy of ‘lazy’ investing is making a comeback (3 minute read)
A shift towards traditional and steady investing strategies is gaining traction as the meme-stock surge fades into the past and interest rates remain high. Investors are revisiting the principles popularized by Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, who advocated for low-cost, passive investments that accumulate value over time.

This approach aligns well with the current market dynamics, where timing has proven challenging, with just eight days accounting for all of the S&P 500's gains this year. The impact of higher rates has particularly affected the technology and growth stock sectors.

Should You Invest In IPOs? It's Still A Risky Prospect (5 minute read)
The allure of investing in a fledgling company from its inception is compelling, particularly for the fortunate few who secure allotments of shares at the initial offering price, potentially reaping immediate profits from the first-day IPO "pop" in share prices.

Despite the ongoing excitement surrounding Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), their historical performance raises concerns for long-term investors. Analyzing data from the beginning of 1980 to the end of 2022, a significant number of IPOs demonstrated losses over both three- and five-year periods following their debut, even for those who managed to purchase shares at the official offering price.

Despite notable success stories like Tesla and Moderna, the average IPO stock, when acquired at the publicly available closing price on its inaugural trading day, yielded approximately 6% annualized returns over three years. In contrast, an index comprising all U.S.-listed stocks generated around 11% annualized returns during the same period.

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